Start with what “affordable” really means to you
Before you look at homes, it helps to define what “comfortable” looks like for your monthly payment. Many lenders and housing economists consider a home affordable when the total mortgage payment is around 28 to 33 percent of your gross monthly income. Once the payment climbs much higher than that, it can start to squeeze your budget for everything else, from groceries to travel. Think of this as your guardrail: if the payment keeps you in that range and leaves you breathing room, you are typically on solid footing.
Where interest rates are in Arizona right now
In early 2026, average 30 year fixed mortgage rates in Arizona are hovering in the mid six percent range, with many buyers seeing rates around 6.06 to 6.6 percent depending on credit, down payment, and loan program. That is higher than the ultra low rates of a few years ago, but lower than the peak periods when rates briefly pushed well above seven percent. The good news is that experts expect rates to move gradually rather than in big, unpredictable jumps, which gives buyers more room to plan.
How rates translate into a real monthly payment
Seeing the rate is one thing, but what you really feel is the payment. For example, one recent analysis showed that on a typical Arizona home around 420,000 dollars with 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed loan at 6.6 percent creates a principal and interest payment of roughly 2,144 dollars per month before taxes and insurance. A different example using a 400,000 dollar purchase and 20 percent down at just over 6 percent put the principal and interest payment around 1,940 dollars per month. If rates rise by a full percentage point on that same loan amount, the monthly payment can jump by roughly 11 percent, which is why even small rate changes can impact what you truly can afford.
Do a quick back of the napkin check on your price range
You can use those guidelines to back into a realistic purchase price for your situation. If your household brings in, say, 9,000 dollars per month before taxes, a comfortable housing budget might be in the 2,500 to 3,000 dollars per month range. In the current Phoenix market, that often lines up with homes somewhere in the mid 300,000s to mid 400,000s, depending on taxes, HOA dues, and the exact rate and loan program you qualify for. From there, a lender can run precise scenarios and show you how your payment changes as you move your price up or down by 25,000 to 50,000 dollars.
Do not forget the “hidden” costs of buying
Your mortgage payment is just one part of the affordability picture. In Arizona, buyers typically spend about two to five percent of the purchase price on closing costs for things like appraisals, inspections, title, and lender fees. You will also want to budget for property taxes, homeowners insurance, and, in many Phoenix and Scottsdale communities, monthly or quarterly HOA dues. On top of that, plan for utilities and ongoing maintenance, especially for systems like air conditioning that work hard in our desert climate. Building these items into your budget upfront helps you avoid feeling “house poor” after you move in.
Should you wait for lower rates to afford more?
It is tempting to think “I will just wait until rates drop and then I can afford more house.” However, history and recent local examples show that when rates move down meaningfully, more buyers jump back in, which can push prices higher and create more competition. Some Phoenix market analyses have shown that even when a slightly lower rate reduces your monthly payment, waiting can cost you far more in rising prices and missed equity growth over a couple of years. A smarter approach is often to look at whether today’s payment works for your life and plan to refinance later if and when rates make sense for you.
How CITIEA helps you find your true number
You do not need to figure this out alone or rely on generic online calculators. In 2025 CITIEA closed over 878,781,970 dollars in sales volume with 1,658 closings, helping buyers across Phoenix and Scottsdale understand exactly what they could afford and which neighborhoods fit their budget. With more than 2,152 five star reviews across our Google and online profiles, clients consistently share that our agents are patient, transparent, and focused on what is best for them, not just making a sale. One recent client said their agent “stayed on top of the transactions, conducting negotiations in a timely and effective fashion” while guiding them into a home that fit both their lifestyle and their finances.
If you are unsure what you can truly afford with today’s interest rates in Phoenix, let’s run the numbers together. The CITIEA team will connect you with trusted local lenders, build side by side payment scenarios, and pair that budget with real homes currently on the market so you can see what your money buys in different parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale. Reach out for a no pressure planning call and walk away with a clear price range, a step by step path to homeownership, and a partner you can trust when you are ready to write that first offer.
